Modeling Social Factor and Faulty Health System on The Dynamic of Childhood Diarrhea in Majengo Nyeri County

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases offers insights into the core processes of disease propagation andtransmission. The main way that diarrhea, an illness symptom caused by parasite, viral, or bacterial pathogens, spreadsis through fecal matter-contaminated water. The main objective is to model under five childhood diarrhea to show howstress and faulty health system usually affect the propagation of this diasese. Stress, whether experienced in childhood oradulthood, can significantly influence the development of bowel disease. Wellness facility-based surveillance studies mayunderstate the disease burden when it is impossible to count the percentage of cases that do not seek care, as in resource-poor environments where access to care is limited or in communities where frequently visited healthcare providers are notincluded in the surveillance system. This study developed a mathematical model of social factor and faulty health systemon the dynamic of childhood diarrhea in Kenya. The model was developed from a system described by first-order equations nonlinear ordinary differential equations in which the disease dies out and the disease-free equilibrium was attained whenthe basic reproduction numberR0<1,The basic reproduction number was shown to beR0=0.008278 that proved withproper care on under five children during diarrhea outbreak the disease can be contained. Whereas the disease couldpersists and the endemic equilibrium is reached whenR0>1. MATLAB software is utilised to do numerical simulationsstudies using the model parameters was calculated to show how social factor (stress) and faulty health system propagatechildhood diarrhea as more children suffer from stress during diarrhea outbreak they tend to have more severe outcome ascompared when free of stress. Poor health facilities have also been shown to contribute to the development of diarrhea asmost dont offer good services to their patient. The results of the study will provide valuable information to stakeholders,informed laboratory technicians and field experts by demonstrating the effect of stress and faulty health system that willaid in development of new intervention strategies.