Modeling Social Factor and Faulty Health System on The Dynamic of Childhood Diarrhea in Majengo Nyeri County, Kenya

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases offers insights into the core processes of disease propagation and transmission. The main way that diarrhea, an illness symptom caused by parasite, viral, or bacterial pathogens, spreads is through fecal matter-contaminated water. The main objective is to model under five childhood diarrhea to show how stress and faulty health system usually affect the propagation of this diasese. Stress, whether experienced in childhood or adulthood, can significantly influence the development of bowel disease. Wellness facility-based surveillance studies may

understate the disease burden when it is impossible to count the percentage of cases that do not seek care, as in resource- poor environments where access to care is limited or in communities where frequently visited healthcare providers are not

included in the surveillance system. This study developed a mathematical model of social factor and faulty health system on the dynamic of childhood diarrhea in Kenya. The model was developed from a system described by first-order equationsnonlinear ordinary differential equations in which the disease dies out and the disease-free equilibrium was attained when the basic reproduction number R0 < 1, The basic reproduction number was shown to be R0 = 0.008278 that proved with proper care on under five children during diarrhea outbreak the disease can be contained. Whereas the disease could persists and the endemic equilibrium is reached when R0 > 1. MATLAB software is utilised to do numerical simulations studies using the model parameters was calculated to show how social factor (stress) and faulty health system propagate childhood diarrhea as more children suffer from stress during diarrhea outbreak they tend to have more severe outcome as compared when free of stress. Poor health facilities have also been shown to contribute to the development of diarrhea as most dont offer good services to their patient. The results of the study will provide valuable information to stakeholders, informed laboratory technicians and field experts by demonstrating the effect of stress and faulty health system that will aid in development of new intervention strategies.